Friday, October 17, 2008

The Earthquake...19 Years Later

Today marks the 19th anniversary of the Loma Prieta Earthquake. While most people remember it as interrupting the World Series between the Oakland A's & the San Francisco Giants (BTW...what are the odds of there being a 6.9 earthquake in the Bay Area during a World Series in which the 2 local baseball teams are playing in? A million to one? A billion to one?), the quake was quite devastating. It killed 63 people, injured approximately 3,700 more, and caused $6 billion worth of damage. I was 2 @ the time, and all I remember is the ground shaking @ my Grandma's house, like walking in one of those "fun houses" where the floor moves from side-to-side as you run through it. Walking around like a drunk person as my Grandma ran towards me screaming hysterically. Anyone else remember it?


Alicia said...

I don't personally remember it, but I do recall the stories. . . My mother's good friend was biking on the bridge, you know the rest.

Wow. Earthquakes have always been a big part of growing up in Cali.

The Sunrise said...

The statistical probability of the scenerio you describe has many compound implications.

First, and easiest would be the probability of the two teams making it to the world series. (I'm not going to waste my time actually giving you real figures), but I feel like it would be less than 1:100,000.

The second factor to figure in is the chance of an earthquake hitting the San Fransisco area at all. USGS says that there is a 62% chance that a major earthquake will hit San Fransico in the next 30 years.

The third factor is that it not only has to hit within 30 years, but within the one-two week time period of a series Which I'll put at .001. Unless you want it to hit during game time and then we are in serious trouble and it would be more like 0.0000001.

Then you have to multiply all of these statistics together and you get a wonderful statistic of the likelyhood coming somewhere in the neighborhood of 1:1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. I got tired of counting zeros and will stop now, but it is considerably higher than your query on the matter.

I enjoy your blog and will continue to follow your progress. Welcome to the digital realm.